Launch Services Market - Environment Impact Assessment - Downrange Safety
LAUNCH SERVICES MARKET: SUMMARY
There are two segments of the launch market that can be addressed by ZENIT- AUSTRALIA operations from Cape York: Low Orbit launches (LEO) and geostationary launches (GEO). The following sections will consider both segments.
The LEO market is dominated by launches of telecommunications satellite constellations and launches of Earth Observation satellites to Sun-Synchronous Orbits (SSO).
Telecommunication LEO Market
There are three telecommunication mega-constellations that have progressed beyond conceptual design at this time and have launches scheduled beyond 2024:
- OneWeb constellation, backed by AIRBUS, includes 882-1980 satellites 145kg each;
- Starlink constellation, backed by SPACE-X, includes 4425 satellites, with planned increase to 12000, 260kg each;
- Project Kuiper, backed by AMAZON, includes 3236 satellites.
Project Kuiper has completed its licensing phase, with planned deployment starting 2026. This fits perfectly with our project development schedule, but it must be noted that Jeff Bezos historically gives strong preference to US national providers. Accordingly, there are three realistic low orbit telecommunication constellations that can potentially be customers for the deployment services offered by ZENIT-AUSTRALIA. However, two constellations are backed by companies with their own stable of launch vehicles capable of addressing their deployment, expansion, and maintenance needs. Although the market demand even for these constellations is impressive, obtaining actual launch contracts for them will be an uphill battle, considering that constellation owners can cover their needs using their own resources.
Earth Observation (SSO Market)
There are approximately 70 known SSO constellations and individual missions. Among these, only 15 launch contracts have not yet been reported, which transpires into an opportunity for an additional 1-2 launches per year to SSO orbit during 2026-2037.
Geostationary Orbit (GEO) Market is the main target for Zenit-Australia future operations. This market segment includes three principal segments from the standpoint of launch services:
1. Replacement of the worn-out operational commercial telecommunication satellites;
2. Acquisition of national telecommunication satellites by emerging government customers;
3. Emergence of the new commercial global telecommunication providers.
For the period of 2026-2040 the first segment of the market accounts for about 160 launch contacts (not including USA NRO, France, Russia, China, and Japan launches); the second segment can be estimated as 20 launch opportunities, and the third segment can reach up to 160 new satellites, although the impact of LEO satellite constellations may undermine these expectations.
Taking this data into account we expect to see 220-230 available launch services contract opportunities in 2026-2037.
ENVIRONMENT IMPACT OF ZENIT-AUSTRALIA OPERATIONS: SUMMARY
According to our analysis, the environmental impact of the launch operations from the Cape York location is minimal. In particular it was found that:
- The latest observation of the protected reptiles took place at the spot, which is ~60km east from the launch site, 13 years ago (in 2010); no reptiles were ever observed closer than 10km from the launch site;
- Endangered birds (Curlew Sandpiper) were not observed closer than 65km to the site for 48 years; critically endangered (Far Eastern Curlew) was observed in the area in 1981 (the latest), also 65 km away from the site; endangered Painted Snipe was the latest observed in 1994, 550km away from the launch site.
- The probability of disruption of the migration of the endangered birds by launch operations is 8.3E-07 for the worst case (and unlikely) scenario of all 4 launches of the year falling in the Curlew Sandpiper migration period. This probability is lower than the acceptable risk of human casualties for industrial operations.
- The level of the noise, which is generated during launch operations, is 160dB, falling to 150dB at the 55m distance. It corresponds to the noise of the jet at take-off, heard from 25m away. However it falls to 120dB at 1600m, at the boundaries of the launch pad area. This level of noise corresponds to a regular summer thunderstorm, and cannot be a a matter of concern.
- The emissions generated during single launch of the Zenit-Australia account for only 0.00000203.% of the annual Queensland emissions; altogether launch activity can generate up to 0.000012% of these emissions. This corresponds to annual emissions of 23-24 passenger cars, and can be considered insignificant.
- Finally, the modelling of the ground impact of the debris in a case of the abnormal flight termination had demonstrated, that the probability of killing either of endangered species downrange by the launch vehicle debris is ~1,63E-09, which is about 1000 times lower, than usually accepted risk of human casualties during any non-combat operations.
Bringing all these considerations together we believe that Space Port operations at the Cape York pose no environmental risk.
DOWNRANGE SAFETY OF ZENIT-AUSTRALIA OPERATIONS: SUMMARY
The preliminary location of the launch site for East launch azimuth does not have any permanent human presence witin +/- 10 degrees sector down to the eastern coast of Cape York. It would be sufficient to issue regular notifications about planned launches, to prevent random visitors from walking into the potentially risky area.
